Modelling electricity demand scenarios for France on the road to net-zero

With Thomas Le Gallic, Julien Lefèvre

Abstract: Facing the urgency of climate change, France defined its National Low-Carbon Strategy in 2020, committing to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, notably through energy sobriety measures. Mitigating the rise in electricity demand is all the more complex as the evolution of this demand, which is bound to change with lifestyles in a society that is becoming electrified and digitalised, is uncertain. This paper develops new tools for modelling household electricity demand scenarios for France on the road to net zero by 2050. This forward-looking, multi-sector approach to electricity demand focuses on its socio-economic and demographic determinants, particularly the mobility-residential nexus. Thus, it enables us to explore the interplay between equity and the effectiveness of decarbonisation measures. Indeed, this paper incorporates the synthetic population method of multi-agent models into energy-economy scenario models like IMACLIM (IMpact Assessment of CLIMate policies). This approach enables us to study aggregate decarbonisation trajectories and their macroeconomic feedback effects, accounting for population heterogeneity in age, income, housing or transport conditions. This dynamic representation of the population distribution is more flexible and realistic than the usual static assumption of representative household classes.